The idea that Greece should have a referendum to decide on whether or
not to accept the bail-out package from the rest of us has clearly come
as a bit of a shock to the politicians who like to think they run the
eurozone. So far, absolutely no democracy whatsoever has been introduced
to the bail-out process and that, I daresay, is how they expected
things to carry on. But the bail-out package comes with nasty
conditions - public sector pay cuts, tax rises, lower pensions and the
like – that it is hard to see any nation accepting without something of a
fight.
So it makes sense for the Greek government to give the people the
final say on the deal. If they don’t, they are bound to lose power soon
anyway – this just gives them something of a chance of hanging on. You
can’t have severe austerity without consent of some kind from your
electorate. As John Redwood puts it: “In reality, there was no ability
to deliver their preferred policy without some means like a referendum
of getting people to accept the chosen course of action.” The fact that
the Greek government – seemingly alone among Europe’s governments – is
prepared to recognise that big events of this sort need discussion with
their populations as well as with the euro elite is actually rather
heartening.
But the fact that markets are diving this morning should tell us
one more thing. Greece has all the power. The talk around the bail-outs
is usually about what Germany is prepared to do rather than what Greece
is prepared to accept. Germany is assumed to have the power. But Greece
has now shown the markets that it just isn’t so. If the Greeks decide
they don’t fancy the terms much and announce a disorderly exit, it is
game over for the euro, for Europe’s economy and for Germany’s
weak-currency driven export boom.
Time for everyone to start being a bit more polite to Greece. A
senior member of Angela Merkel’s government has noted that he is
irritated: “"Other countries are making considerable sacrifices for
decades of mismanagement and poor leadership in Greece,” he says.
I suspect that if they don’t want to have to start staving off the next banking crisis, they might have to make a few more.
Source: http://www.moneyweek.com/blog/is-greece-the-most-powerful-country-in-the-world-56101
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